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Samstag, 9. Januar 2010

Börsenboom wegen PPT?

Manipuliert das Plunge Protection Team die Kurse? Dieser Artikel erschien 2003 in der FAZ

"Hinter dem Börseboom stecken weder die Wirtschaftsdaten noch traditionelle Kapitalquellen", sagt der Chef des Analysehauses TrimTabs - Charles Biderman - an dem auch Goldman Sachs beteiligt ist. Seiner Meinung nach könnte die US-Regierung den Markt manipulieren.

Seit März 2008 ist die Marktkapitalisierung an der Wall Street um sechs Billionen Dollar gestiegen. Doch weder Privatanleger noch Hedge-Fonds und Pensionsfonds oder ausländische Investoren hätten so viel Geld in den Markt gepumpt, schließt Biderman. Er stellt sich daher die Frage: Woher kommt das Geld?

Die US-Regierung könnte es sich jedenfalls leisten, sich die Börse hochzukaufen, zitiert die "Financial Times" Biderman. "Wir haben keine Beweise, aber wir wissen, dass weder die Wirtschaft noch traditionelle Kapitalquellen hinter dem Börseboom stehen".

Biderman begründet seine These:

  • Unternehmen wären nicht auf der Kauf-, sondern auf der Verkaufsseite engagiert.
  • Hedgefonds kämen zwar in Frage, aber angesichts gleichzeitiger Geldabflüsse niemals im genannten Umfang.
  • Das Ausland hat zwar für 109 Milliarden Dollar gekauft, aber auch dadurch lässt sich der Boom nicht erklären.

PPT steht für Plunge Protection Team und hat eine ganz spezielle Aufgabe als Krisenfeuerwehr für Kapitalisten.

As far as we know, it is not illegal for the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury to buy S&P 500 futures. Moreover, several officials have suggested the government and major banks could support stock prices. For example, former Fed board member Robert Heller opined in the Wall Street Journal in 1989, “Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.”

In a Financial Times article in 2002, an unidentified Fed official was quoted as acknowledging that policymakers had considered buying U.S. equities directly, not just futures. The official mentioned that the Fed could “theoretically buy anything to pump money into the system.” In an article in the Daily Telegraph in 2006, former Clinton administration official George Stephanopoulos mentioned the existence of “an informal agreement among the major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem.”
Think back to mid-March 2009. Nothing positive was happening, and investor sentiment was horrible. The Fed, the Treasury, and Wall Street were all trying to figure out how to prevent the financial system from collapsing.
What if Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, and the head of one or more Wall Street firms decided that creating a stock market rally was the only way to rescue the economy? After all, after-tax income was down more than 10% y-o-y in Q1 2009, and the trillions the government committed or spent to prop up various entities was not working. One way to manipulate the stock market would be for the Fed or the Treasury to buy a nominal $60 to $70 billion of S&P 500 stock futures each month for as long as necessary. Depending on margin levels, as little as $5 billion to $15 billion per month was all that was necessary to lift the S&P 500 by 67%. Even $15 billion per month would have been peanuts compared to what was being doled out elsewhere.
Since the stock market was extremely oversold in early March, not only would a new $60 to $70 billion per month of buying power have stopped stock prices from plunging, but it would have encouraged huge amounts of sideline cash to flow into equities to absorb the $295 billion in newly printed shares that have been sold since the start of April.
This type of intervention could explain some of the unusual market action in recent months, with stock prices grinding higher on low volume even as companies sold huge amounts of new shares and retail investors stayed on the sidelines. Some market watchers have charted that virtually all of the market’s upside since mid-September has come from after-hours futures activity.
Quelle: Die Presse und Financial Times - Alphaville

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